The Texas Longhorns are considered national championship favorites by many, but this prediction says otherwise.
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Matthew Schmidt is a sportswriter who covers NFL, MLB, NBA and college football and basketball. He has been writing professionally since 2011 and has also worked for On SI, Bleacher Report, FanRag Sports, ClutchPoints, NFLAnalysis.net and NBAAnalysis.net. He was born and raised in New Jersey and has a rather eclectic group of favorite teams: the Boston Celtics, New York Giants and Miami Marlins.
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The Texas Longhorns are everyone's college football darlings heading into the 2025 season. They are ranked No. 1 in the AP poll, and many are deeming them national championship favorites thanks much in part to Arch Manning's presence under center.
Based on the talent-laden roster, it's hard not to like Texas right now, but is it possible we are overrating the Longhorns?
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The Athletic recently ran projections using a statistical model to determine how the college football landscape will shape up this year, and it does not seem to like Texas as much as you would think.
The Longhorns are the ninth-ranked team in the projections and are being predicted to finish with a record of 9-3. Two SEC teams — Georgia and Alabama — are ranked ahead of Texas, and the Longhorns are only being given a 64 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff.
We have seen this type of thing happen plenty of times before. Teams do get overhyped, and there actually are reasons to be worried about Texas going into the new campaign.
One of the biggest causes for concern is the Longhorns' offensive weapons, particularly in the receiving corps. Both Matthew Golden and Isaiah Bond made the jump to the NFL during the offseason, as did running back Jaydon Blue.
For as talented as Manning may be, it could be difficult for the young quarterback to overcome a dearth of proven weapons at his disposal, although there is also reason to believe that Texas may have a diamond in the rough. Stanford transfer Emmett Mosley V, for example, could comprise a breakout talent in Austin.
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Regardless, the Longhorns are certainly no shoo-in to make a deep playoff run, and they are not quite as loaded as last year's Ohio State Buckeyes squad, who defeated Texas in the Cotton Bowl en route to a national championship.
Ironically enough, the Longhorns will face Ohio State in their season opener next Saturday.
For more on college football, head to Newsweek Sports.
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